Spain's National Statistics Institute (INE) has lowered its forecast for household creation: it now estimates around 2.2 million new households between 2026 and 2041, roughly 1.5 million fewer than in its previous projection. At first glance that sounds like less housing demand, but the picture for the Costa del Sol is more nuanced. Let's break it down.
What has changed in the forecast
The downgrade is not because there are fewer people, but because of how households form. Average household size keeps shrinking and the population is ageing, so households are smaller and form at a somewhat more moderate pace: about 145,600 new households a year on average. It is a correction of expectations, not a collapse in demand.
Smaller households: the single-person home takes the lead
One key shift is in household type. The INE expects single-person households to become the most common by 2041 (around 30%), on a par with two-person homes. That shifts part of demand toward smaller, well-located properties - apartments and penthouses - rather than large family houses. For investors, it is a signal about which product will sell and let.
Less projected demand, but the shortage is still there
Slightly fewer homes needed per household does not remove the underlying problem: Spain carries a deficit of around 750,000 homes built up over recent years. A more moderate demand forecast eases the pressure, but it does not close the gap between what is needed and what is built. That structural shortage keeps supporting prices.
Andalusia, among the fastest-growing
By region, Madrid, Catalonia and Andalusia lead the absolute increase in households (Andalusia adds close to 359,000 new homes). On the Costa del Sol there is also a factor that national statistics do not capture: international demand. Second-home buyers and foreign investors add a layer of demand that goes beyond the formation of resident households.
Conclusion
The read for the Costa del Sol is favourable over the medium and long term: resilient domestic demand, sustained international appeal and scarce quality supply. The key is less about 'how many households' and more about 'which home and where': well located, efficient and the size the market wants. At EVS Property Group we help you choose wisely, with local, multilingual advice on buying, selling and investing.
What next? The most useful thing after reading is to look at the real market: browse properties by city or tell us on WhatsApp what you are looking for — area, budget, timing — and we will prepare a tailored selection, with no obligation.
You may also find useful: sell your property invest on the Costa del Sol free valuation monthly price report
