The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.5% on 29 October 2026, but markets treat a 0.25-point hike at the 17 December meeting as all but certain. For anyone planning to buy on the Costa del Sol with a mortgage, the pause is no relief: Euribor is still around 3.2% and banks are already making their offers more expensive.
What did the ECB decide, and what is expected in December?
After hikes in June (to 2.25%) and September (to 2.5%), the central bank paused. According to the financial press, markets price in an 85% probability of another 25-basis-point rise in December, which would take the rate to 2.75% by year-end.
The backdrop explains the caution: eurozone inflation rose to 3.8% in September, its highest in three years, while sovereign debt, particularly French, is straining markets. Several analysts even argue that the bond market is doing part of the central bank's tightening work.
How much is your mortgage going up?
The 12-month Euribor closed October at around 3.24%, against 2.19% in October 2025. On average that adds roughly €1,000 a year to the repayments of a variable-rate mortgage. On fixed rates, banks have spent weeks nudging their pricing up, in some cases by as much as 0.40 points, with nominal rates now between 2.75% and 3.50%.
| Indicator | Figure |
|---|---|
| ECB deposit rate (29-10-2026) | 2.5% |
| Expected hike on 17 December | 0.25 points (85% probability) |
| Eurozone inflation, September | 3.8% |
| Euribor, October average | 3.24% |
| Euribor, October 2025 | 2.19% |
| Fixed-rate mortgage (nominal rate) | 2.75% – 3.50% |
Is the housing market cooling?
Notary figures for August point to a market with fewer deals but prices still rising: 34,599 home sales, 9.8% fewer than a year earlier (the eighth consecutive fall and a six-year low) and 19,875 mortgages signed, down 5.6%. Even so, the average price per square metre sold rose 12.8%, to about €1,959.
Do not mix sources: notaries and the national statistics office measure different things, which is why their August figures differ. What all of them confirm is a credit slowdown: in the Bank of Spain survey, a net 40% of lenders saw mortgage demand for housing fall and, for the fourth quarter, banks expect weaker demand and tighter criteria. We look at this in our article on why mortgage demand is falling in Spain.
What does it mean for buying in Marbella, Málaga or Estepona?
On the Costa del Sol a large share of international buyers pay cash or finance outside Spain, so pricier local credit affects them less. National buyers and residents who rely on a Spanish mortgage do feel the change, and that can give a little more room to negotiate in mid-priced segments.
For reference, our October market report puts the Costa del Sol median at €650,000 and €4,738/m², with Marbella at €6,096/m², Malaga en 4.955 y Estepona at €4,750. These are asking prices, not closing prices, and they are recalculated every month in the Costa del Sol market report.
What can you do before December?
- Compare offers from several banks and a mortgage broker: the gap between lenders is now bigger than what any bonus brings.
- Weigh fixed against variable by simulating the repayment at a Euribor one point higher, not just today's.
- Get pre-approval before viewing properties, to know your real budget and lock in terms.
- Keep a buffer: a conservative valuation or a rate rise can reduce the final loan.
Conclusion
The ECB pause is a breather in the calendar, not a change of course. Anyone who needs financing should decide with numbers and compared offers. At EVS PROPERTY GROUP we can help you work out your budget and find a home on the Costa del Sol.
Frequently asked questions
Did the ECB raise rates in October 2026?
No. On 29 October it kept the deposit rate at 2.5% after the June and September hikes.
When is the next ECB meeting?
On 17 December 2026. Markets expect a 0.25-point hike.
How does it affect Euribor and my variable-rate mortgage?
Euribor is around 3.2%, more than a point above a year ago, which means roughly €1,000 more a year in repayments on average.
Is it better to buy now or wait for rates to fall?
It depends on your financing. With prices still rising and rates possibly going higher, the prudent move is to simulate the repayment at a higher Euribor and compare several offers before deciding.
What next? The most useful thing after reading is to look at the real market: browse properties by city or tell us on WhatsApp what you are looking for — area, budget, timing — and we will prepare a tailored selection, with no obligation.
You may also find useful: sell your property invest on the Costa del Sol free valuation monthly price report
