Spanish home prices will keep rising in 2026, but more slowly: what agents expect and what it means for the Costa del Sol

Spain's residential market enters the second half of 2026 with a clear message from the people working on the ground: prices will keep climbing, but the pace is easing. That is the picture painted by the 24th Real Estate Barometer from UCI (Unión de Créditos Inmobiliarios) and its professional network SIRA, a six-monthly survey of more than 400 agencies and professionals across Spain.

The barometer's key figures

The most striking takeaway is the gear change in price expectations. Where the previous edition saw the sector forecasting rises of between 5% and 10%, the average projection now sits at around 3% for homes on the market. That is not a fall — it is a calmer climb.

• House prices: expected to rise around 3% (versus 5-10% in the previous barometer).
• Rents: estimated increase of close to 5% a year.
• Sales transactions: a year-on-year drop of just over 3% expected in the number of deals.
• Rental transactions: an estimated fall of more than 7%, driven by the shortage of available stock.
• New mortgages: a decline of around 2% anticipated.
• Sector optimism: 6.4 out of 10, half a point lower and the fourth consecutive decline.

Why prices hold firm even with fewer transactions

It may sound contradictory: fewer sales, fewer mortgages, and yet prices still rising. The explanation is structural, and the surveyed professionals repeat it themselves: demand continues to outstrip available supply across much of the country. Until new housing arrives in sufficient volume, scarcity keeps a floor under prices even during quieter phases of the market.

The barometer also shows a more cautious industry: confidence in the stability of sales volumes dropped 13 points in the first half of 2026, and optimism has now fallen four times in a row. In other words, professionals do not see the cycle turning, but they do see a market that demands more realistic pricing and timelines.

What this means for Málaga and the Costa del Sol

National averages tell only part of the story. The Costa del Sol plays in a league of its own: on top of local demand there is an international buyer who does not depend on Spanish mortgage financing and who targets very specific product — frontline locations, established areas and quality new-builds above all. In these segments supply is particularly tight, so a national moderation to 3% can easily coexist with stronger growth in the most sought-after spots along the Málaga coastline.

For anyone buying a main home or a second residence, a market with fewer transactions has an upside: less competition for each property and more room to negotiate calmly. For investors, the forecast of rents rising around 5% a year, combined with the rental shortage, continues to underpin returns on well-located residential property. And for sellers, the message is one of realism: getting the price right from day one matters more than ever, because the 2026 buyer compares more and decides with less urgency.

How to navigate a normalising market

• Buyers: use the lower pressure to view more properties, compare, and make offers conditional on full technical and legal checks.
• Investors: focus on areas with structural rental demand (Málaga city, the Benalmádena-Fuengirola corridor, Marbella) and run the numbers on real data, not promises.
• Sellers: a professional valuation and a realistic asking price shorten selling times and avoid the staggered discounts that hurt how a property is perceived.

Conclusion

The industry is not anticipating a correction but a market settling into a healthier rhythm: more sustainable price growth, more considered transactions and a rental market still under pressure. In that context, knowing the specific micro-market — area, property type, real demand — makes the difference between a good decision and a missed opportunity.

At EVS Property we follow the Málaga and Costa del Sol market every day. If you are thinking of buying, selling or investing, tell us about your plans and we will give you an honest read on your area and your budget.