S&P Global Ratings forecasts Spanish house prices rising 9.1% in 2026, 7.4% in 2027 and 6.2% in 2028, which would make Spain the country with the fastest-rising housing costs in Europe in 2027 and 2028. The European average sits at around 4% in 2026 and below 3.5% in 2027. For anyone weighing up a purchase in Marbella, Malaga or the Costa del Sol, the forecast changes the maths of waiting versus deciding.
How much will Spanish house prices rise?
These are the figures the rating agency projects for the coming years, set against the European backdrop:
| Market | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +9.1% | +7.4% | +6.2% |
| Portugal | +10% | Below Spain | Below Spain |
| European average | Around 4% | Over 3% | Still rising |
In 2026 Portugal edges slightly ahead, but from 2027 Spain tops the European ranking. Put another way: the expected appreciation of the Spanish market is more than double the continental average.
Why are Spanish prices rising so fast?
S&P doesn't put the rise down to a speculative bubble but to a structural imbalance between demand and what is actually being built. The factors it flags are specific:
- A dynamic labour market, with job creation and rising wages expanding purchasing power.
- Population growth and immigration, widening housing demand.
- Administrative red tape in construction, holding back new-build supply.
- The result: a supply-demand gap that keeps widening rather than closing.
What does it mean for buyers on the Costa del Sol?
The Costa del Sol brings together, in amplified form, every ingredient S&P describes: steady international demand, finite front-line land and new-build supply that trickles in slowly in towns like Marbella or Estepona. If the Spanish average climbs at the forecast pace, it's reasonable to expect the coast's most sought-after areas to sit at the top of that range.
That said, the forecast deserves a cool head. A projection is not a guarantee, and buying purely out of fear of missing out is a poor adviser. The sensible move is to cross-check the macro number against real prices in each micro-market: an apartment in Málaga city is not the same as a villa on the Golden Mile. That's why we publish a market report with median prices by municipality and euros per square metre, updated monthly.
Is it better to buy now or wait?
If S&P's forecast plays out, waiting a year in a market rising 7-9% annually makes the same home tangibly more expensive, with nothing gained but time. Yet the decision shouldn't hinge on the calendar alone: finding the right asset, in the right area, at the right price matters more. A good property bought with judgement weathers any cycle better than a rushed purchase in the trendy spot of the moment.
Conclusion
S&P's underlying message is that Spain isn't living a passing euphoria but a structural supply shortage that will underpin prices for years. On the Costa del Sol that means a market with room to run, but also a more selective one. At EVS Property Group we help you read the data for your area and decide with judgement, not haste.
Frequently asked questions
How much will Spanish house prices rise in 2026?
S&P Global Ratings forecasts a 9.1% rise in 2026, followed by 7.4% in 2027 and 6.2% in 2028. These are well above the European average of around 4% for 2026.
Is this a housing bubble?
S&P doesn't frame it that way: it attributes the rise to a supply-demand mismatch —jobs, immigration and scarce new build— rather than the credit excess and speculation seen in 2007.
Will prices in Marbella and Málaga rise like the rest of Spain?
Not necessarily. Areas with international demand and scarce land, such as the Málaga coast, tend to move above the national average, though behaviour varies widely from one micro-market to another.
What next? The most useful thing after reading is to look at the real market: browse properties by city or tell us on WhatsApp what you are looking for — area, budget, timing — and we will prepare a tailored selection, with no obligation.
You may also find useful: sell your property invest on the Costa del Sol free valuation monthly price report
