The president of Spain's General Council of Official Real Estate Agents (COAPI), Ángel Martínez, sees no ceiling on house prices in the short term. His reasoning is not a salesman's rosy forecast but a diagnosis of scarcity: housing supply cannot keep up with structural demand, and until that changes, prices will keep rising. With the average price at €2,600/m² after a 12.8% jump in 2025 and forecasts of another 5-10% for 2026, it's worth understanding what sustains that trend and what it means for buyers in Malaga and the Costa del Sol.
Why does he see no ceiling on house prices?
The core thesis is simple and hard to refute: homes are not being built at the pace demand requires. On top of the shortage of new build come slow permitting, a scarcity of ready-to-build land, and regulatory uncertainty that deters both development and letting. As long as more buyers arrive than the housing stock can absorb, prices need not correct. This isn't speculative euphoria as in 2007; it's an underlying mismatch between what exists and what is needed.
| Indicator | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average price (2025) | €2,600/m² |
| Year-on-year rise 2025 | +12.8% |
| 2026 forecast (appraisers) | +5% to +10% |
| Affordability burden | ~8 years of full salary |
| Deposit savings in big cities | Over €100,000 |
The problem isn't the price, it's the deposit
One of the interview's most revealing points is the barrier to entry. Buying an average home in Spain today requires around eight years of full salary, and in big cities the deposit frequently tops €100,000 in savings. Even public guarantees don't solve it: under the ICO scheme —up to 100% financing for homes worth up to €325,000— more than 60% of young applicants fail to meet the bank's requirements, because the guarantee doesn't replace the lender's risk assessment. In short: what holds back domestic demand isn't lack of appetite, it's lack of a deposit.
Rentals: "capping prices without touching supply doesn't lower rents, it hides them"
Martínez is blunt about rent controls. His critique, boiled down to one line, is that capping rent without increasing supply doesn't make renting cheaper: it pushes it out of the regulated market. An owner fearing regulatory uncertainty pulls their flat from long-term letting or diverts it to tourism. He cites Catalonia, where the rule itself had to be amended months after being passed. Tourist rentals, he notes, are 1.24% of the national stock —little in aggregate, but heavily concentrated in specific neighbourhoods, and Málaga is one of the examples he mentions.
What does it mean for buyers on the Costa del Sol?
The scarcity diagnosis holds strongly on the Málaga coast, but with a nuance that changes the maths: here much of the demand depends neither on credit nor on ICO guarantees. The international buyer purchasing in Marbella, Estepona or Benalmádena typically brings more of their own capital and competes for finite front-line land. If nationally prices see no ceiling for lack of supply, on the coast that pressure is even greater, because available land is scarce and demand is global.
That said, "no ceiling in the short term" doesn't mean "everything rises equally". Appreciation is spread very unevenly by municipality, property type and condition. So the sensible decision isn't to rush a purchase out of fear of rising prices, but to buy well: the right area, the right asset, the right price. To position any offer against your municipality's real market, we publish a market report with median prices by area and euros per square metre, updated monthly.
A note on who you buy through
Martínez also uses the interview to demand something that directly affects buyers: in Spain, since 2000, there has been no state-level regulation of the profession, and today anyone can broker a sale without qualifications or mandatory professional liability insurance. His implicit advice is clear: in the biggest financial decision of your life, who you make it with matters. Artificial intelligence will handle the mechanical tasks —valuations, data analysis— but legal judgement, negotiation and human guidance remain irreplaceable.
Conclusion
The underlying reading is consistent with what's visible on the ground: there is no bubble about to burst, there is a structural shortage that will underpin prices for years, especially where land is finite and demand international, as on the Costa del Sol. That doesn't force you to buy in a hurry, but it does invite you to buy with judgement and good advice. At EVS Property Group we help you read the data for your area and decide without being swept along by the headline.
Frequently asked questions
How much did house prices rise in 2025 and what's forecast for 2026?
The average price ended 2025 at around €2,600/m², up 12.8% on the previous year. For 2026 the main appraisers forecast rises of between 5% and 10%.
Why do prices rise so much if fewer homes are sold?
Because price is set by the mismatch between supply and demand, not just the number of transactions. With little new build and scarce land, even if sales fall the supply remains insufficient and prices hold.
Is it a good time to buy on the Costa del Sol?
If the supply shortage persists, waiting in a rising market makes the same home more expensive. But more than timing, what matters is buying well: the right area, property and price, with real market data and good advice.
What next? The most useful thing after reading is to look at the real market: browse properties by city or tell us on WhatsApp what you are looking for — area, budget, timing — and we will prepare a tailored selection, with no obligation.
You may also find useful: sell your property invest on the Costa del Sol free valuation monthly price report
