Housing forecast for 2027: fewer sales and rising prices, what changes in Málaga?

The housing price forecast for 2027 points to a market with fewer transactions but no drop in prices: sales would fall by around 8% and prices would keep rising, though at a pace below 5%. That is the conclusion of the latest property report by Forcadell and the University of Barcelona, and for anyone thinking of buying on the Costa del Sol it means that waiting for prices to come down is unlikely to pay off.

The report revises upwards what it expected a year ago. Back then it forecast record sales for 2026 and an 8% price rise; it now estimates that prices will climb by somewhat more than 10% this year and that the number of transactions will go down, a trend that would continue in 2027. Below we go through its figures and compare them with what the property registers already show for the province.

What does the Forcadell report forecast for 2027?

The core message is that the market is cooling in volume, not in price. These are the key figures from the study for Spain as a whole:

The study also notes that between 2019 and 2025 nominal prices rose by 44.8% in Spain, ten points more than the European Union average. And that, despite the rise in prices, mortgage lending remains far below bubble levels: in 2006 more than twice as much home lending was granted as in 2025.

Why are sales falling while prices keep rising?

The explanation is the shortage of supply. Spain builds a fraction of what it built before the financial crisis, while demand remains high, driven by employment, population growth and foreign buyers. When few homes are for sale, fewer deals are closed, but those that are closed go through at higher prices.

The other brake is affordability. Saving for the deposit and paying the taxes and costs of the purchase is increasingly difficult, especially for young people and for households without family support. The report also warns that if inflation does not ease and the European Central Bank raises rates again, new mortgages could become more expensive in 2027.

Is the fall in sales already visible in Málaga?

Yes, although moderately. Property register data published by Spain's statistics office (INE) show that between January and August 2026 fewer home sales were registered than in the same period of the previous year, and the province is falling faster than the national average:

The fall is concentrated in resale homes, where the shortage of properties for sale weighs most. New builds are holding up better thanks to the developments still being handed over on the western Costa del Sol.

One caveat: the INE counts registrations, which arrive weeks or months after the signing before a notary, and its national decline up to August is milder than the one the report expects for the full year. They are different sources and methods, but both point in the same direction.

How much does it cost to buy a home on the Costa del Sol today?

To put the forecast in context, these are the median asking prices in the main towns according to our Costa del Sol market report, based on more than 8,400 homes for sale in November 2026:

These are asking prices, what sellers are asking for, not closing prices. Even so, they show the real range of the market: from around 3,400 euros per square metre in Manilva to more than 6,000 in Marbella. If price growth slows to below 5% in 2027, on a 650,000-euro home that would still mean up to around 30,000 euros more in a year.

Will property prices fall in 2027?

According to the report, no. What it forecasts is a slowdown: prices would keep rising, but less than in 2025 and 2026. For them to fall, there would need to be a sharp increase in supply or a sudden drop in demand, and neither is in sight on the Málaga coast, where new builds take years to reach the market.

The main risk lies in financing. With Euribor above 3% and the possibility of further ECB rate rises, the payment on a variable-rate mortgage may go up. The fact that three out of every four euros lent in 2025 were at a fixed rate protects those who have already bought, but not those who sign in 2027.

Should you buy in 2027 or wait?

There is no single answer, but a market with fewer transactions and prices still rising changes the strategy for each type of buyer or seller:

• Buyer with a mortgage: compare fixed and mixed-rate offers before you start viewing homes and get the valuation done early, because borrowing costs may rise.
• Cash buyer: with fewer active buyers there is more room to negotiate, especially on resale homes that have been listed for a while.
• Seller: prices are still rising, but sales take longer; a realistic asking price shortens the time on the market.
• Buy-to-let investor: with rents that could rise by up to 4% a year, returns depend more than ever on the purchase price.
• Everyone: set aside between 8% and 10% on top of the price for taxes and costs if you buy a resale home in Andalusia.

In short

The forecasts for 2027 point to a calmer market in terms of the number of sales, but not a cheaper one. On the Costa del Sol, where supply is scarce and international demand remains strong, the sensible expectation is slower price growth, not falls. If you are considering buying or selling, at EVS we help you analyse the real price of each area and find the home that fits your budget.

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